Draft
Hull Symposium -- PSA 1990
by Noretta Koertge
Introduction:
David Hull's book provides an evolutionary account of the development of
science which pays attention to both the social and conceptual aspects of
that process.
Unlike most philosophers, who only invoke Darwinian metaphors in a casual
way, Hull takes the analogy between the biological evolution of species
and the growth of scientific knowledge quite seriously and by providing
abstract definitions of terms such as replicator, interactor and lineage,
he makes it possible for us to see clearly the structural similarities between
the two historical processes.
Others here today will comment on how tight that analogy really is. I
must remark in passing that I have never understood the intense interest
evolutionary which epistemologists take in this comparison. Surely our
major job is to understand how science works, perhaps by using evolutionary
theory as a fallible heuristic, but nothing seems to hinge on the extent
of the formal analogy. My main concern would be with the extent to which
the evolutionary analogy illuminates what is distinctive about scientific
development as opposed to other branches of intellectual history. For example,
Elaine Pagel's story of the struggle between the early Gnostics and what
we would now consider the more orthodox variants of Christianity could be
translated into quasi-Darwinian terms as follows:
In the first few centuries after the death of Jesus, two important theological
systems (cf. genotypes) existed. Each had its own gospels. The four orthodox
gospels (Matthew, Mark, Luke, John) spoke of the bodily resurrection of
Christ. The gnostic gospels (e.g. those of Mary Magdalene and Philip),
on the other hand, spoke only of spiritual resurrection and implied that
the post-crucifixation sightings of Jesus were really mystical visions,
not observation reports. These two theologies were embodied in and influenced
the actions of two groups of Christians (cf. phenotypes). The orthodox
group were more successful in gaining converts, not because of any intrinsic
theological superiority, but because their doctrine of apostolic succession
(passed down from Peter through ordination) gave their movement more stability.
The leadership roles amongst the gnostics were more fluid because they
depended on the charismatic and visionary powers of individuals, qualities
which were much more difficult to operationalize. As a result, Gnostic
Christianity literally went extinct - there were no extant replications
of many of the Gnostic gospels until the discoverry in 1945 of a bunch of
manuscripts in a jar in Egypt.
The point of my example is this: The part of Hull's account which parallels
evolutionary biology does not solve the demarcation problem - it does not
describe the distinctive aspects of the growth of scientific knowledge.
What must be added to the general evolutionary account are the scientific
norms which Hull summarizes by the slogan of curiosity, checking, and
credit.
Theologians do not, in general, place high value on any of the three C's.
But scientists are carefully trained to do so and it is these norms which
determine how the struggle between competing scientific theories is to be
conducted and which differentiate the discussions of the Nobel Prize Committee
from religious discussions about who should or should not be canonized.
(I am not denying that politics plays a role in each; but I do claim that
the standards of appraisal differ.)
So I want to now turn away from the Spencerian swamp of evolutionary epistemology
and concentrate instead on what Hull says about the distinctive values and
social practices of science, especially what he says about the roles of
competition, cooperation and credit in organized science and how they contribute
to the growth of scientific knowledge.
Most of my remarks will be a re-presentation and/or sympathetic extension
of David's account, but at the end I think my approach may deviate from
what he had in mind, but maybe not - we'll see!
The Problem of Whether the Concern About Credit Helps or Hinders Science
Before I read Hull, I think if someone has asked me about the significance
of the emphasis which scientists place on the ways in which credit is apportioned
in science, I might have said something like the following:
The "real" value/purpose of footnotes is to direct the interested
reader to a place where they can get additional information on the subject.
Who did the experiment or formulated the theory is "really" not
very important, although it does provide a way of assigning responsibility
for bad work. It is also sometimes important to know how many different
laboratories have replicated a particular experiment.
As far as credit is concerned, counting citations, etc. is something which
only sociologists, tenure/promotion committees, funding panels, and other
folks who haven't time to read the literature have any need to do. "Real"
scientists are motivated by curiosity and the joy of problem solving; the
essential ingredients of a scientific community are the traditional Mertonian
norms of universalism, disinterestedness, and communalism. All of this
striving for personal recognition is at best peripheral to the process of
science.
As for priority disputes, I would have said that these are the legitimate
concerns only for patent lawyers and hero-worshipping historians (still
under the spell of romantic theories of genius). A "real" scientist
is passionately concerned that the solutions to important problems be found
and checked by others, but it can't possibly "really" matter to
science whose discovery was first. Maybe sociobiologists can explain why
(male) scientists have so much "paternity anxiety" or worry so
much about who was the first to score the big "breakthrough".
All of this is embarrassing nonsense which may tell us something about
the pettiness and immaturity of scientists (which is exacerbated by today's
funding squeeze) but has nothing to do with science "comme il faut".
However, after reading Hull I am prepared to seriously entertain the idea
that the credit practices of scientists cannot be ignored by any adequate
theory of science and that credit does play an important role in the furthering
of intellectual progress in science. I may be less optimistic than David,
however, about how efficiently our present credit system functions. And
I also think we need to have a good analysis of exactly how the present
reward system benefits science. It is not good enough just to say, science
is doing pretty well so our present credit system must be O.K.
Why Curiosity and Checking Are Not Enough
To motivate Hull's emphasis on the reward system of science and to begin
our analysis of how it works, let us do a typical social philosophy thought-experiment
in which we start out with isolated individuals and then assemble them into
an efficient, scientific community. What new motivational ingredients would
we need to inculcate? What special social norms would need to emerge?
And since we are focusing on credit, let us also assume that our individual
scientists are already well-equipped with curiosity and are already personally
intriqued by the various types of problems which trigger scientific inquiry
- problems arising from violated expectations, unexplained regularities,
ununified bodies of knowledge, etc.
Let us also assume that they already have a propensity to subject proposed
solutions to problems to critical scrutiny and have already realized that
it is a good idea to have independent, skeptical collaborators to scrutinize
observation claims, come up with cogent objections to other people's theories,
etc. So, the present thought experiment presupposes that the institutions
which facilitate scientific curiosity and empirical checking are already
in place. We now ask, why isn't this enough? Why do we need to add a concern
for individual credit in order to make our New Atlantis work?
The general answer is, I think, fairly simple. We want scientists to solve
new problems, ones which no one yet knows the answer to, and we want them
to publish their solutions. Lest we take all of this for granted, we should
remember that children routinely satisfy their curiosity and hone their
problem-solving skills by re-discovering Archimedes' Principle or playing
with Rubick's cubes. One tension in science education is how to teach students
the skills necessary for and the satisfactions of solving problems for themselves
(in which case the novelty of their solutions is unimportant) while also
encouraging them to look up answers to questions in authoritative reference
works and to devote their energies to working on new projects. And there
are educated adults, many of them excellent college teachers, whose active
curiosity makes them life-long readers of "Great Books" but who
have few aspirations to make novel contributions.
Satisfying one's personal curiosity does not insure communal progress.
For the latter to occur, we need to make easily available combined communal
information (e.g., libraries), we need to insure that people work on genuinely
new problems (e.g., by requiring literature searches), and we need to reward
people for actually publishing any solutions which they obtain, instead
of secretly gloating that they know something which no one else does (hence,
the publish-or-perish ethos).
Hull points out that in the past, scientists were often reluctant to make
their results public. There was (and is) of course a tradition of passing
on craft skills and secrets only to apprentices (e.g., alchemy, Stradavarius'
violins) and until the patent-system was developed it would be silly to
divulge technological innovations.
But gentlemen scientists also buried results in desk drawers out of laziness,
or caution, or failure of nerve - or because the incentives and opportunities
to publish were deficient. For example, here is Dijksterhuis' commentary
on his countryman, Isaac Beeckman:
"Beeckman showed the same defects in the matter of science as Leonardo
da Vinci. Both were deficient in the tenacity of purpose and powers of
concentration required to systematize, finish, record, and publish their
inquiries, even if only in one field. Of Faraday's motto: `Work, Finish,
Publish', they only took to heart the first injunction. In consequence
they either did not advance science at all, or at least to a much smaller
extent than they might have done.
"Those of Beeckman's ideas which are going to be described here do
not therefore really form a link in the chain of development under consideration.
However, they are of value because they give the reader some notion of
the scientific thought of a gifted man of the early seventeenth century."
(The Mechanization of the World Picture, p. 330)
"We shall see more of Beeckman's independent and frequently original
way of thinking later: it is to be regretted that this candle never stood
on a candle-stick." (ibid., p. 333)
Although today we tend to think that it is "natural" to want
to solve problems no one else has ever solved before and to get public credit
for it, I think even a brief look at the early history of science and especially
at traditional societies (cf. Kemal's Mehmet, My Hawk) reminds us that such
a drive is not to be taken for granted and must in fact be carefully shaped
through scientific institutions. (Every human being may be curious and
want some kind of recognition from their peers, but the kinds of things
scientists get curious about and the kinds of credit that they find rewarding
are both unusual tastes which are probably acquired.)
Let us now look in a little more detail at how the credit system in science
works so that we can eventually ask how efficient it is in fostering scientific
progress. Hull's description of the publishing/citation system quickly
reveals just how complex the credit system is. Perhaps we can begin to
analyze and evaluate it by looking at how credit considerations enter in
at each step of the scientific process as philosophers would describe it.
(Here I follow a quasi-Popperian schema.) Again I will adopt a thought-experiment
strategy. Let us assume that scientists have the mundane proximate aim
of maximizing personal recognition. How well will the behavior appropriate
to such an aim coincide with the traditional ultimate aim of understanding
the universe?
In the sketch which follows I will emphasize the congruence between these
goals (because that is what I found surprising).
(i) Choice of problem: If our immediate aim is to get published in scientific
journals, we should choose problems which haven't been solved yet, but which
are ripe for solution. (It is generally difficult to publish unsuccessful
solution attempts or interim reports.) It may be wise to form a team so
as to be able to tackle problems which others aren't equipped to solve and
in order to solve problems more quickly. Of course, this means we'll have
to share credit with our co-authors. We also will need to be able to assess
the competence of prospective teammates.
We should also choose a problem whose solution will be of interest to our
peers (otherwise they won't cite our work). This tends to lead a clustering
of research efforts around hot topics which means there is more data/theoretical
speculations around that topic for everyone to use. But it also promotes
a healthy division of labor because it encourages research teams to choose
not just problems which they have a good chance of eventually solving, but
ones which they also have a good chance of solving first.
(ii) Working out a tentative solution: Since the first publication often
gets the most positive citations, we must work rapidly and secretly, especially
if other individuals or teams are pursuing similar lines of inquiry. This
is a time for team camaraderie, brainstorming, and constructive criticism
of conjectures. We will look for promising helpful hints while refereeing
our competitor's grant-proposals or even their submitted journal articles
(although note that in scientific journals submission dates are published).
On the other hand, we will be reticent to share preliminary results with
anyone who might scoop us. This will also protect our own reputations if
the conjecture we're working on turns out to be way off-base.
Once we have a solution which has passed preliminary appraisals, we must
decide when to publish it. This is a complicated choice. The reasons for
publishing as soon as possible are obvious: if we are right, we want to
get credit for being first. However, as Hull emphasizes, there are also
lots of reasons not to rush into print. If we are quickly shown to be wrong,
our reputations are likely to suffer somewhat. (This non-Popperian attitude
towards refuted bold conjectures has the function of pruning the literature
a little bit. Note that the greater the reward for being first, the greater
should be the penalty for being wrong if the literature is not to deteriorate.)
There is yet another consideration: if our conjecture is correct, it will
generally lead to other lines of productive research. By temporarily delaying
publication, we can explore these ramifications at our leisure and publish
everything at once!
(iii) Appraisal of the tentative solution: Ignoring for the moment the
pre-publication networks in science, the first hurdle that our tentative
solution has to pass is the journal review process.
In order to function well, the institutions which regulate publishing in
science have to balance a variety of desiderata. Science (and the public)
benefits when results are published, so there must be opportunities and
incentives to publish. On the other hand, it is imperative to maintain
quality control over what is published, so one needs to prevail on experts
in each field to take time off from their own research to referee articles.
Why should they consent to undertake these time-consuming and often unpleasant
activites? Well, as any journal editor knows, not everyone does consent.
It is in every scientist's cognitive interest to keep the communal knowledge
store as reliable as possible but are there any mundane (credit-related)
reasons for doing so? Well, as I pointed out above, it's always nice to
have advance knowledge of what other people working in your area are up
to. Furthermore, an excellent way to make sure your own ideas are taken
seriously (thus gaining you credit while increasing their fitness) is to
eliminate, or at least point out the weaknesses in, rival viewpoints.
The form of appraisal most emphasized by philosophers is that of varied
and severe empirical testing, but a scientist looking for professional credit
will not spend time performing experiments which are unlikely to result
in a significant number of citations. So routine replications are out,
tests of theories which are of low interest are out, even refutations of
other people's popular theories will be of rather low priority (because
they will probably not cite your results except to explain them away) unless
the refutated theory is in direct competition with your groups own pet conjecture
in which case your allies will cite it extensively. (One is reminded here
of Lakatos' cognitive claim that there are no refutations, only superceded
research programmes.) Under the credit system, bad theories don't die -
no refutation of them may ever appear in print; they merely fade from view
as their competitors get more citations.
The Problem of Maintaining the Credit System - Why Idealism is Important
After All
Hull emphatically debunks the romantic myth of scientist as the objective,
altruistic problem-solver whose only interest is that Nature be understood
(and no matter who wins the Nobel Prize for being the first to probe her
inner-most secrets). Scientists, like everyone else, want credit for their
successes. However, Hull just as adamantly opposes the cynical view that
since scientists que scientists are motivated by mundane ambitions, the
products of their inquiry have no special cognitive status. This would
be like arguing that since business men and professional athletes are both
"in it for the money", it makes no difference whether you put
Donald Trump or Magic Johnson on the basketball court! The crucial question
is not whether scientists want credit; what matters is which activities
they get credit for. Do the proximate rewards reinforce the ultimate aims
of science? Can scientists "do well by doing good" science?
In the above analysis, I followed Hull in emphasizing the nice fit between
what we might call the proximate mundane goals of professional success and
the ultimate noble aims of the search for scientific understanding. Yet
philosophy of biology reminds us how easy it is to make up "just-so"
stories which render any trait you like adaptive. And philosophers of social
science have taught us to be skeptical of easy functionalist analyses which
emphasize the beneficial effects of the potlach, cargo cults, sacred cows,
primitive warfare and witch burning.
Could we not also tell a pessimistic story about how the lust for quick
publications and citations discourages scientists from tackling difficult
problems which would take a long time to solve but which are nevertheless
important? About how too much emphasis on credit can lead to the exploitation
of graduate students, the mistreatment of laboratory animals, irresponsible
methodological shortcuts, the practice of publishing virtually the same
article in several places, unfair hiring practices, even outright fraud?
Even Hull's own optimistic analyses indicate that the balance between the
cooperative and competitive aspects of science is a rather fine one. We
note that some professions are not so lucky as science has been so far.
The qualities and behaviors required to be a successful politician in an
age of TV elections are almost contrary to those which contribute to statesmanship.
And there are fewer professional incentives for doctors to stay abreast
of new medical developments (unless their patients read about them in the
popular press and demand them) than there are for scientists to keep up
in their fields. When there is a dissonance between the success structure
and internal aims, such as in medicine and politics, we need to focus on
institutional reforms, where the direction of the reform is dictated by
the internal aims of medicine (which are why society values it in the first
place).
Or consider the case of professional sports, which is like science in having
a good congruence between mundane success (reflected in salaries) and internally
defined excellence (extraordinary sporting performances). It would at first
appear that even if athletes were just in it for the money, they would have
to play just as well. So one might argue that mundane motivations are sufficient
for do not harm sports as long as there is a strong correlation between
salary and batting averages.
Yet perhaps it is not just romanticism which makes us suspicious of this
cozy conflation of the sacred and the secular. What if coaches become reluctant
to call for a sacrifice bunt (because players want to keep their averages
up)? What if salaries come to depend on a player's charismatic box-office
appeal, not just on box scores? Won't people playing primarily for money
be easier prey for point-shaving deals with gamblers?
The general point is this: Any congruence between careerism and love of
the professional activity is precarious enough that we are ill-advised to
abandon our romantic-sounding rehearsals of the internal aims of science
or sport.
When a profession's reward system is consonant with the goals of that profession
it is indeed possible to do good by doing well. But we should never forget
the primary importance of doing good.
I will close with an anecdote. I once asked a seminar of graduate students
how difficult it would be to completely fabricate their Ph.D. dissertation
and get away with it. After they got over their initial shock, many of
them answered that it would be quite easy. Well, why don't you do it, I
asked. There was an embarrassed silence and finally the political scientist,
whose survey research project we all agree would be the easiest to fake,
answered" "Because it wouldn't be any fun? I want to know what
my experimental subjects really think?"
Scientists want credit, yes. But what they want credit for is discovering
interesting truths. It's the last part that most sociologists miss entirely.
David doesn't miss it -- but perhaps we disagree on how important it is
to keep harping on it. But of course his book was published before Colorado
used five downs to win a game!
values and social practices of science, especially what he says about the
roles of competition, cooperation and credit in organized science and how
they contribute to the growth of scientific knowledge.
Most of my remarks will be a re-presentation and/or sympathetic extension
of David's account, but at the end I think my approach may deviate from
what he had in mind, but maybe not - we'll see!
The Problem of Whether the Concern About Credit Helps or Hinders Science
Before I read Hull, I think if someone has asked me about the significance
of the emphasis which scientists place on the ways in which credit is apportioned
in science, I might have said something like the following:
The "real" value/purpose of footnotes is to direct the interested
reader to a place where they can get additional information on the subject.
Who did the experiment or formulated the theory is "really" not
very important, although it does provide a way of assigning responsibility
for bad work. It is also sometimes important to know how many different
laboratories have replicated a particular experiment.
As far as credit is concerned, counting citations, etc. is something which
only sociologists, tenure/promotion committees, funding panels, and other
folks who haven't time to read the literature have any need to do. "Real"
scientists are motivated by curiosity and the joy of problem solving; the
essential ingredients of a scientific community are the traditional Mertonian
norms of universalism, disinterestedness, and communalism. All of this
striving for personal recognition is at best peripheral to the process of
science.
As for priority disputes, I would have said that these are the legitimate
concerns only for patent lawyers and hero-worshipping historians (still
under the spell of romantic theories of genius). A "real" scientist
is passionately concerned that the solutions to important problems be found
and checked by others, but it can't possibly "really" matter to
science whose discovery was first. Maybe sociobiologists can explain why
(male) scientists have so much "paternity anxiety" or worry so
much about who was the first to score the big "breakthrough".
All of this is embarrassing nonsense which may tell us something about
the pettiness and immaturity of scientists (which is exacerbated by today's
funding squeeze) but has nothing to do with science "comme il faut".
However, after reading Hull I am prepared to seriously entertain the idea
that the credit practices of scientists cannot be ignored by any adequate
theory of science and that credit does play an important role in the furthering
of intellectual progress in science. I may be less optimistic than David,
however, about how efficiently our present credit system functions. And
I also think we need to have a good analysis of exactly how the present
reward system benefits science. It is not good enough just to say, science
is doing pretty well so our present credit system must be O.K.
Why Curiosity and Checking Are Not Enough
To motivate Hull's emphasis on the reward system of science and to begin
our analysis of how it works, let us do a typical social philosophy thought-experiment
in which we start out with isolated individuals and then assemble them into
an efficient, scientific community. What new motivational ingredients would
we need to inculcate? What special social norms would need to emerge?
And since we are focusing on credit, let us also assume that our individual
scientists are already well-equipped with curiosity and are already personally
intriqued by the various types of problems which trigger scientific inquiry
- problems arising from violated expectations, unexplained regularities,
ununified bodies of knowledge, etc.
Let us also assume that they already have a propensity to subject proposed
solutions to problems to critical scrutiny and have already realized that
it is a good idea to have independent, skeptical collaborators to scrutinize
observation claims, come up with cogent objections to other people's theories,
etc. So, the present thought experiment presupposes that the institutions
which facilitate scientific curiosity and empirical checking are already
in place. We now ask, why isn't this enough? Why do we need to add a concern
for individual credit in order to make our New Atlantis work?
The general answer is, I think, fairly simple. We want scientists to solve
new problems, ones which no one yet knows the answer to, and we want them
to publish their solutions. Lest we take all of this for granted, we should
remember that children routinely satisfy their curiosity and hone their
problem-solving skills by re-discovering Archimedes' Principle or playing
with Rubick's cubes. One tension in science education is how to teach students
the skills necessary for and the satisfactions of solving problems for themselves
(in which case the novelty of their solutions is unimportant) while also
encouraging them to look up answers to questions in authoritative reference
works and to devote their energies to working on new projects. And there
are educated adults, many of them excellent college teachers, whose active
curiosity makes them life-long readers of "Great Books" but who
have few aspirations to make novel contributions.
Satisfying one's personal curiosity does not insure communal progress.
For the latter to occur, we need to make easily available combined communal
information (e.g., libraries), we need to insure that people work on genuinely
new problems (e.g., by requiring literature searches), and we need to reward
people for actually publishing any solutions which they obtain, instead
of secretly gloating that they know something which no one else does (hence,
the publish-or-perish ethos).
Hull points out that in the past, scientists were often reluctant to make
their results public. There was (and is) of course a tradition of passing
on craft skills and secrets only to apprentices (e.g., alchemy, Stradavarius'
violins) and until the patent-system was developed it would be silly to
divulge technological innovations.
But gentlemen scientists also buried results in desk drawers out of laziness,
or caution, or failure of nerve - or because the incentives and opportunities
to publish were deficient. For example, here is Dijksterhuis' commentary
on his countryman, Isaac Beeckman:
"Beeckman showed the same defects in the matter of science as Leonardo
da Vinci. Both were deficient in the tenacity of purpose and powers of
concentration required to systematize, finish, record, and publish their
inquiries, even if only in one field. Of Faraday's motto: `Work, Finish,
Publish', they only took to heart the first injunction. In consequence
they either did not advance science at all, or at least to a much smaller
extent than they might have done.
"Those of Beeckman's ideas which are going to be described here do
not therefore really form a link in the chain of development under consideration.
However, they are of value because they give the reader some notion of
the scientific thought of a gifted man of the early seventeenth century."
(The Mechanization of the World Picture, p. 330)
"We shall see more of Beeckman's independent and frequently original
way of thinking later: it is to be regretted that this candle never stood
on a candle-stick." (ibid., p. 333)
Although today we tend to think that it is "natural" to want
to solve problems no one else has ever solved before and to get public credit
for it, I think even a brief look at the early history of science and especially
at traditional societies (cf. Kemal's Mehmet, My Hawk) reminds us that such
a drive is not to be taken for granted and must in fact be carefully shaped
through scientific institutions. (Every human being may be curious and
want some kind of recognition from their peers, but the kinds of things
scientists get curious about and the kinds of credit that they find rewarding
are both unusual tastes which are probably acquired.)
Let us now look in a little more detail at how the credit system in science
works so that we can eventually ask how efficient it is in fostering scientific
progress. Hull's description of the publishing/citation system quickly
reveals just how complex the credit system is. Perhaps we can begin to
analyze and evaluate it by looking at how credit considerations enter in
at each step of the scientific process as philosophers would describe it.
(Here I follow a quasi-Popperian schema.) Again I will adopt a thought-experiment
strategy. Let us assume that scientists have the mundane proximate aim
of maximizing personal recognition. How well will the behavior appropriate
to such an aim coincide with the traditional ultimate aim of understanding
the universe?
In the sketch which follows I will emphasize the congruence between these
goals (because that is what I found surprising).
(i) Choice of problem: If our immediate aim is to get published in scientific
journals, we should choose problems which haven't been solved yet, but which
are ripe for solution. (It is generally difficult to publish unsuccessful
solution attempts or interim reports.) It may be wise to form a team so
as to be able to tackle problems which others aren't equipped to solve and
in order to solve problems more quickly. Of course, this means we'll have
to share credit with our co-authors. We also will need to be able to assess
the competence of prospective teammates.
We should also choose a problem whose solution will be of interest to our
peers (otherwise they won't cite our work). This tends to lead a clustering
of research efforts around hot topics which means there is more data/theoretical
speculations around that topic for everyone to use. But it also promotes
a healthy division of labor because it encourages research teams to choose
not just problems which they have a good chance of eventually solving, but
ones which they also have a good chance of solving first.
(ii) Working out a tentative solution: Since the first publication often
gets the most positive citations, we must work rapidly and secretly, especially
if other individuals or teams are pursuing similar lines of inquiry. This
is a time for team camaraderie, brainstorming, and constructive criticism
of conjectures. We will look for promising helpful hints while refereeing
our competitor's grant-proposals or even their submitted journal articles
(although note that in scientific journals submission dates are published).
On the other hand, we will be reticent to share preliminary results with
anyone who might scoop us. This will also protect our own reputations if
the conjecture we're working on turns out to be way off-base.
Once we have a solution which has passed preliminary appraisals, we must
decide when to publish it. This is a complicated choice. The reasons for
publishing as soon as possible are obvious: if we are right, we want to
get credit for being first. However, as Hull emphasizes, there are also
lots of reasons not to rush into print. If we are quickly shown to be wrong,
our reputations are likely to suffer somewhat. (This non-Popperian attitude
towards refuted bold conjectures has the function of pruning the literature
a little bit. Note that the greater the reward for being first, the greater
should be the penalty for being wrong if the literature is not to deteriorate.)
There is yet another consideration: if our conjecture is correct, it will
generally lead to other lines of productive research. By temporarily delaying
publication, we can explore these ramifications at our leisure and publish
everything at once!
(iii) Appraisal of the tentative solution: Ignoring for the moment the
pre-publication networks in science, the first hurdle that our tentative
solution has to pass is the journal review process.
In order to function well, the institutions which regulate publishing in
science have to balance a variety of desiderata. Science (and the public)
benefits when results are published, so there must be opportunities and
incentives to publish. On the other hand, it is imperative to maintain
quality control over what is published, so one needs to prevail on experts
in each field to take time off from their own research to referee articles.
Why should they consent to undertake these time-consuming and often unpleasant
activites? Well, as any journal editor knows, not everyone does consent.
It is in every scientist's cognitive interest to keep the communal knowledge
store as reliable as possible but are there any mundane (credit-related)
reasons for doing so? Well, as I pointed out above, it's always nice to
have advance knowledge of what other people working in your area are up
to. Furthermore, an excellent way to make sure your own ideas are taken
seriously (thus gaining you credit while increasing their fitness) is to
eliminate, or at least point out the weaknesses in, rival viewpoints.
The form of appraisal most emphasized by philosophers is that of varied
and severe empirical testing, but a scientist looking for professional credit
will not spend time performing experiments which are unlikely to result
in a significant number of citations. So routine replications are out,
tests of theories which are of low interest are out, even refutations of
other people's popular theories will be of rather low priority (because
they will probably not cite your results except to explain them away) unless
the refutated theory is in direct competition with your groups own pet conjecture
in which case your allies will cite it extensively. (One is reminded here
of Lakatos' cognitive claim that there are no refutations, only superceded
research programmes.) Under the credit system, bad theories don't die -
no refutation of them may ever appear in print; they merely fade from view
as their competitors get more citations.
The Problem of Maintaining the Credit System - Why Idealism is Important
After All
Hull emphatically debunks the romantic myth of scientist as the objective,
altruistic problem-solver whose only interest is that Nature be understood
(and no matter who wins the Nobel Prize for being the first to probe her
inner-most secrets). Scientists, like everyone else, want credit for their
successes. However, Hull just as adamantly opposes the cynical view that
since scientists que scientists are motivated by mundane ambitions, the
products of their inquiry have no special cognitive status. This would
be like arguing that since business men and professional athletes are both
"in it for the money", it makes no difference whether you put
Donald Trump or Magic Johnson on the basketball court! The crucial question
is not whether scientists want credit; what matters is which activities
they get credit for. Do the proximate rewards reinforce the ultimate aims
of science? Can scientists "do well by doing good" science?
In the above analysis, I followed Hull in emphasizing the nice fit between
what we might call the proximate mundane goals of professional success and
the ultimate noble aims of the search for scientific understanding. Yet
philosophy of biology reminds us how easy it is to make up "just-so"
stories which render any trait you like adaptive. And philosophers of social
science have taught us to be skeptical of easy functionalist analyses which
emphasize the beneficial effects of the potlach, cargo cults, sacred cows,
primitive warfare and witch burning.
Could we not also tell a pessimistic story about how the lust for quick
publications and citations discourages scientists from tackling difficult
problems which would take a long time to solve but which are nevertheless
important? About how too much emphasis on credit can lead to the exploitation
of graduate students, the mistreatment of laboratory animals, irresponsible
methodological shortcuts, the practice of publishing virtually the same
article in several places, unfair hiring practices, even outright fraud?
Even Hull's own optimistic analyses indicate that the balance between the
cooperative and competitive aspects of science is a rather fine one. We
note that some professions are not so lucky as science has been so far.
The qualities and behaviors required to be a successful politician in an
age of TV elections are almost contrary to those which contribute to statesmanship.
And there are fewer professional incentives for doctors to stay abreast
of new medical developments (unless their patients read about them in the
popular press and demand them) than there are for scientists to keep up
in their fields. When there is a dissonance between the success structure
and internal aims, such as in medicine and politics, we need to focus on
institutional reforms, where the direction of the reform is dictated by
the internal aims of medicine (which are why society values it in the first
place).
Or consider the case of professional sports, which is like science in having
a good congruence between mundane success (reflected in salaries) and internally
defined excellence (extraordinary sporting performances). It would at first
appear that even if athletes were just in it for the money, they would have
to play just as well. So one might argue that mundane motivations are sufficient
for do not harm sports as long as there is a strong correlation between
salary and batting averages.
Yet perhaps it is not just romanticism which makes us suspicious of this
cozy conflation of the sacred and the secular. What if coaches become reluctant
to call for a sacrifice bunt (because players want to keep their averages
up)? What if salaries come to depend on a player's charismatic box-office
appeal, not just on box scores? Won't people playing primarily for money
be easier prey for point-shaving deals with gamblers?
The general point is this: Any congruence between careerism and love of
the professional activity is precarious enough that we are ill-advised to
abandon our romantic-sounding rehearsals of the internal aims of science
or sport.
When a profession's reward system is consonant with the goals of that profession
it is indeed possible to do good by doing well. But we should never forget
the primary importance of doing good.
I will close with an anecdote. I once asked a seminar of graduate students
how difficult it would be to completely fabricate their Ph.D. dissertation
and get away with it. After they got over their initial shock, many of
them answered that it would be quite easy. Well, why don't you do it, I
asked. There was an embarrassed silence and finally the political scientist,
whose survey research project we all agree would be the easiest to fake,
answered" "Because it wouldn't be any fun? I want to know what
my experimental subjects really think?"
Scientists want credit, yes. But what they want credit for is discovering
interesting truths. It's the last part that most sociologists miss entirely.
David doesn't miss it -- but perhaps we disagree on how important it is
to keep harping on it. But of course his book was published before Colorado
used five downs to win a game!