Reader Survey
It is very
important that you complete this survey BEFORE reading ahead. That way, you
won't fall prey to hindsight biases, or the "I-knew-it-all-along
effect" (discussed in Chapter 3). If you prefer not to write in the book,
just jot down your answers on a piece of paper and use the paper as a bookmark.
1) Linda
is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy.
As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social
justice, and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. Please check off
the most likely alternative.
__ Linda is a bank teller.
__ Linda is a bank teller and is active in
the feminist movement.
(2) If you were
faced with the following choice, which alternative would you choose?
__ A 100
percent chance of losing $50
__ A 25
percent chance of losing $200, and a 75 percent chance of losing nothing
(3) John is
envious, stubborn, critical, impulsive, industrious, and intelligent. In
general, how emotional do you think John is? (Circle one number)
Not emotional
at all 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Extremely emotional
4) Jim
is intelligent, skillful, industrious, warm, determined, practical, and
cautious. Please circle the other traits you think Jim is most likely to have.
Circle
one trait in each pair:
Generous Ungenerous
Unhappy
Happy
Irritable
Good-natured
Humorous Humorless
(5) Here's a
question for college students only: Compared to other students of your sex and
age, what are the chances that the following events will happen to you? (Check
the one answer that comes closest to your view for each event.)
(5a) Will develop a
drinking problem:
__ 60+
percent more likely
__ 40
percent more likely
__ 20
percent more likely
__ No
more or less likely
__ 20 percent
less likely
__ 40
percent less likely
__ 60+ percent
less likely
(5 b) Will own your own home:
__ 60+
percent more likely
__ 40
percent more likely
__ 20
percent more likely
__ No
more or less likely
__ 20
percent less likely
__ 40
percent less likely
__ 60+ percent
less likely
(5c) Will receive a
postgraduate starting salary above 75,000:
__ 60+
percent more likely
__ 40
percent more likely
__ 20
percent more likely
__ No
more or less likely
__ 20
percent less likely
__ 40
percent less likely
__ 60+ percent
less likely
(5d) Will have a heart
attack before the age of 40:
__ 60+
per-cent more likely
__ 40
percent more likely
__ 20
percent more likely
__ No
more or less likely
__ 20
percent less likely
__ 40
percent less likely
__ 60+ percent
less likely
(6) As the
president of an airline company, you have invested $10 million of the company's
money into a research project. The purpose was to build a plane that would not
be detected by
conventional
radar, in other words, a radar-blank plane. When the project is 90 percent
completed, another firm begins marketing a plane that cannot be detected by
radar. Also, it is apparent that
their plane is much faster and far more economical than the plane your company
is building. The question is: Should you invest the last 10 percent of the
research funds to finish your radar-blank plane?
___ NO- It makes no
sense to continue spending money on the project.
___ YES- As long as $
10 million is already invested, I might as well finish the project.
(7) Which is a
more likely cause of death in the United States - being killed by falling
airplane parts or by a shark!
___ Failing
airplane parts
___ Shark
(8) For each
pair, circle the cause of death that is most common in the United States:
Diabetes/Homicide
Tornado/Lightning
Car
Accidents/Stomach Cancer
(9) Consider
the following historical scenario: "The government of a country not far
from Superpower A, after discussing certain changes in its party system, began
broadening its trade with Superpower B. To reverse these changes in government
and trade, Superpower A sent its troops into the country and militarily backed
the original government."
(9a) Which country is
Superpower A?
___ Soviet
Union
___ United
States
(9b) How confident are you
of your answer? (Circle one number.)
Not confident
at all 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Very confident
(10) Here's another
scenario: "'In the 1960s Superpower A sponsored a surprise invasion of a
small country near its border, with the purpose of overthrowing the regime in
power at the time. The invasion failed, and most of the original invading
forces were killed or imprisoned."
(10a) Which country is Superpower
A?
___ Soviet
Union
___ United
States
(10b) How confident are you of your
answer? (Circle one number.)
Not confident
at all 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Very confident
(11) Place a check mark
beside the alternative that seems most likely to occur within the next ten
years:
___ An all-out
nuclear war between the United States and Russia
___ An all-out
nuclear war between the United States and Russia in which neither country
intends to
use nuclear weapons, but both sides are drawn into the conflict by the actions
of a
country such
as Iraq, Libya, Israel, or Pakistan.
(12) A piece of paper is
folded in half. It is folded in half again, and again. . . . After 100 folds,
how thick
will it be?
(12a) My best guess is that the
paper will be _______ thick.
(12b) I am 90 percent sure that the
correct answer lies between __________ and ____________.
(13) Including February 29,
there are 366 possible birthdays in a year. Consequently, a group would need to
contain 367 members in order to be absolutely sure that at least two people
shared the same birthday. How many people are necessary in order to be 50
percent certain?
The group
would need ________ members.
(14) Suppose a study of 250
neurology patients finds the following frequencies of dizziness and brain tumors:
BRAIN
TUMOR
Present Absent
Present 160 40
DIZZINESS
Absent 40 10
14a) Which cells of the table
are needed in order to determine whether dizziness is associated with brain
tumors in this sample of people? (Check all that apply.)
___ Upper left
___ Lower left
___ Upper right
___ Lower right
According to
the data in the table, is dizziness associated with brain tumors?
___ Yes ___
No ___
Not sure
(15) The mean IQ of the
population of eighth graders in a city is known to be 100. You have selected a
random sample of 50 children for a study of educational achievements. The first child tested has an IQ of
150. What do you expect the mean
IQ to be for the whole sample?
ANSWER: ____
16) On the
whole, do you see yourself as a sexist person? (Check one.)
___ Yes ___
No ___
Not sure
71) If all the
human blood in the world were poured into a cube-shaped tank, how wide would
the tank be?
The tank
would be ____________ wide.
(18) If you had to guess,
which of the following interpretations of a Rorschach inkblot are most
predictive of male homosexuality? (If you haven't heard of the Rorschach
inkblot test, just skip this question.) Rank the following interpretations from
1(most predictive of homosexuality) to 6 (least predictive of homosexuality).
___ Human figures of
indeterminate sex
___ Human figures
with both male and female features
___ Buttocks or anus
___ Genitals
___ A contorted,
monstrous figure
___ Female clothing
(19) "Memory can be
likened to a storage chest in the brain into which we deposit material and from
which we can withdraw it later if needed. Occasionally, something gets lost from
the ‘chest,’ and then we say we have forgotten."
Would you say
this is a reasonably accurate description of how memory works?
___ Yes ___
No ___
Not sure
(20) A man bought a horse
for $60 and sold it for $70. Then, he bought it back for $80 and again sold it
for $90. How much money did he make in the horse business?
The
man ended up with a final profit of $_____________.
(21 a) Absinthe is:
___ A liqueur
___ A
precious stone
(21 b) What is the probability that your answer
is correct? (Circle one number.)
.50 .55 .60
.65 .70 .75 .80 .85 .90 .95 1.00
(22) Without actually
calculating, give a quick (five-second) estimate of the following product:
8 X 7 X 6 X 5
X .4 X 3 X 2 x 1 = _____________
(23) Suppose you consider
the possibility of insuring some property against damage, e.g., fire or theft.
After examining the risks and the premium you find that you have no clear
preference between the options of purchasing insurance or leaving the property
uninsured.
It is then
called to your attention that the insurance company offers a new program called
probabilistic insurance. In this program you pay half of the regular premium.
In case of damage, there is a 50 percent chance that you pay the other half of
the premium and the insurance company covers all the losses; and there is a 50
percent chance that you get back your insurance payment and suffer all the
losses.
For example,
if an accident occurs on an odd day of the month, you pay the other half of the
regular premium and your losses are covered but if the accident occurs on an
even day of the month, your insurance payment is refunded and your losses are
not covered.
Recall that
the premium for full coverage is such that you find this insurance barely worth
its cost.
Under these
circumstances, would you purchase probabilistic insurance?
___ Yes
___ No
(24) Suppose you performed
well on a variety of tests over a range of occasions, but other people taking
the same tests did not do very well. What would you conclude? (Check the one
answer that comes closest to your view.)
___ Explanation A:
The tests were probably easy.
___ Explanation B:
The other people were probably low in ability.
___ Explanation C: I
am either good at taking tests or must have known the material well.
In a few
pages, you will be asked some questions about the following sentences. Please
read them carefully now and continue with the Reader Survey:
• The ants ate the sweet jelly which was
on the table.
• The ants were in the kitchen.
• The ants ate the sweet jelly.
• The ants in the kitchen ate the jelly
which was on the table.
• The jelly was on the table.
• The ants in the kitchen ate the jelly.
(25) If you were faced with
the following choice, which alternative would you choose?
___ A
sure gain of $240
___ A 25 percent
chance to gain $1000, and 75 percent chance to gain nothing
(26) If you were faced with
the following choice, which alternative would you choose?
___ A sure loss of
$750
___ A 75 percent
chance to lose $1000, and 25 percent chance to lose nothing
(27) What do you think is
the most important problem facing this country today?
The most
important problem is: ______________________________.
(28a) If you were given a choice,
which of the following gambles would you prefer?
___ $ 1,000,000 for
sure
___ A 10 percent
chance of getting $2,500,000, an 89 percent chance of getting $ 1,000,000, and
a 1 percent chance of getting $0.
(28b) If you were given a choice, which
of the following gambles would you prefer?
___ An 11 percent
chance of getting $ 1,000,000, and an 89 percent chance of getting $0
___ A 10 percent
chance of getting $2,500,000, and a 90 percent chance of getting $0
(29) Imagine two urns filled
with millions of poker chips. In the first urn, 70 percent of the chips are red
and 30 percent are blue. In the second urn, 70 percent are blue and 30 percent
are red. Suppose one of the urns is chosen randomly and a dozen chips are drawn
from it: eight red chips and four blue chips. What are the chances that the
chips came from the urn with mostly red chips? (Give your answer as a
percentage.)
Answer: _______ percent
(30) How much money would
you pay to play a game in which an unbiased coin is tossed until it lands on
Tails, and at the end of the game you are paid ($2 .00)K where K
equals the number of tosses until Tails appears? In other words, you would be
paid $2.00 if Tails comes up on the first toss, $4.00 if Tails comes up on the
second toss, $8.00 if Tails comes up on the third toss, and in general:
Tosses until
Tails: 1 2 3 4 5 ... K
Payoff in
Dollars: 2 4 8 16 32 ... 2K
I would pay
$__________ to play this game.
(31) Suppose an unbiased
coin is flipped three times, and each time the coin lands on
Heads. If you
had to bet $100 on the next toss, what side would you choose?
___ Heads
___ Tails
___ No
preference
For the
following question consult the diagram on page 9 of the Reader Survey in Plous,
The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making (or skip it if you don’t have the
book yet).
(32)
Compare
Lines 1, 2, and 3 with Line A.
Which line is equal in length to Line A?
___ Line A is equal
in length to Line 1.
___ Line A is equal
in length to Line 2.
___ Line A is equal
in length to Line 3.
(33)
How many
times does the letter f appear in the following sentence?
These
functional fuses have been developed after years of scientific investigation of
electric phenomena, combined with the fruit of long experience on the part of
the two investigators who have come forward with them for our meetings today.
The letter f
appears __ times.
(34)
Without
looking back at the list, please indicate whether the following sentences were
included in the set of sentences you read earlier. After each answer, indicate your degree of confidence using
a 1 to a 5 scale in which 1 = “very low” and 5= “very
high”.
(34a) “The ants ate the jelly which
was on the table.”
___ This sentence appeared
before.
___ This sentence did
not appear before.
My confidence
rating is: ______
(34b) “The ants in the kitchen ate
the sweet jelly which was on the table.”
___ This sentence appeared
before.
___ This sentence did
not appear before.
My confidence
rating is: ______
(34c) “The ants ate the sweet
jelly.”
___ This
sentence appeared before.
___ This sentence did
not appear before.
My confidence
rating is: ______
(35) Suppose that scores on
a high school academic achievement test are moderately related to college grade
point averages (GPAs). Given the
percentiles below, what GPA would you predict for a student who scored 725 on
the achievement test?
Student
Percentile Achievement
Test GPA
Top 10% >750 >3.7
Top 20% >700 >3.5
Top 30% >650 >3.2
Top 40% >600 >2.9
Top 50% >500 >2.5
I would
predict a grade point average of ___________.
(36) Does the act of voting
for a candidate change your opinion about whether the candidate will win the
election?
___Yes ___No ___Not
sure
For the
following question consult the diagram on page 11 of the Reader Survey in
Plous, The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making (or skip it if you don’t have the
book yet).
(37) Consider the two
structures, A and B, which are displayed below.
A
path is a line that
connects an X in the top row of a structure to an X in the bottom row by
passing through one (and only one) X in each row. In other words, a path
connects three X's in Structure A (one in each of the three rows) and nine X's
in Structure B (one in each of the nine rows). One example of a path is drawn
in each structure above.
(37a) In which of the two
structures are there more paths?
___ Structure
A ___
Structure B
(37b) Approximately how many paths are in
Structure A? ______
(37c) Approximately how many paths
are in Structure B? ______
(38) Which of the following
sequences of X's and O's seems more like it was generated by a random process
(e.g., flipping a coin)?
___ XOXXXOOOOXOXXOOOXXXOX
___ XOXOXOOOXXOXOXOOXXXOX
For the
following question consult the diagram on page 11 of the Reader Survey in
Plous, The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making (or skip it if you don’t have the
book yet).
(39) Suppose each of the
cards below has a number on one side and a letter on the other, and someone
tells you: "If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number
on the other side." Which of
the cards would you need to turn over in order to decide whether the person is
lying?
I would need
to turn over the following cards (check all that apply):
___ E
___ 4
___ K
___ 7