Featured Research Activities

Dynamics of Reforestation in Coupled Social-Ecological Systems: Modeling Land-Use Decision Making and Policy Impacts Tom P. Evans (IU Dept. of Geography), Burnell Fischer (IU School of Public and Environmental Sciences), Kelly Caylor (Princeton University), Catherine Tucker (IU Anthropology Dept.), and Emilio Moran (IU Anthropology Dept.) Center for the Study of Institutions, Population, and Environmental Change (CIPEC)

Global trends of forest cover change are the product areas of forest stability, deforestation, and reforestation. The process of deforestation has received considerable attention in the global change literature. But reforestation is an increasingly important component of global change with more countries experiencing reforestation resulting from direct incentives to landowners or through the abandonment of agricultural areas. This research examines the process of reforestation in the states of Indiana, United States, and São Paulo, Brazil, from the mid-1980s to the present. An agent-based framework is used to describe parcel level land cover change by integrating household level decision-making dynamics with an ecological model of forest regeneration. This agent-based model is informed by household level survey data that is used to characterize the decision-making dynamics of reforesting landowners as well as document the proportion landowners in different subregional units (counties and municipalities) who allow forest to regrow on their land holdings. Given that both these study areas are experiencing net reforestation, one objective of this research is to identify the point at which this reforestation process may plateau. This "reforestation potential" point has implications for the degree to which areas experiencing net reforestation can offset the negative environmental impacts of areas that are experiencing net deforestation in other parts of the world. Monroe County, Indiana, Land-Cover Change, 1985-2001 We have continued several major data collection activities in 2008 to support the integrated project framework. Major data products have been compiled and highlight methodological accomplishments of this work. Remote sensing and GIS development Digital parcel data and household surveys Indiana household-level landowner survey Ancillary datasets Modeling patch size and location impact Data development in São Paulo, Brazil--including the analysis of municípios (similar to US counties) to obtain ancillary data and to integrate geographic data into a GIS. Census data was acquired for the municípios. A modified version of the household survey was performed. Indiana land trust interviews and mapping (Preliminary analysis reveals that while land trusts are not explicitly forest conservation organizations and rarely promote reforestation directly, all hold forest land. Most have reforested their properties or have aided other organizations and landowners in reforestation activities.) Land reserve interviews in São Paulo State, Brazil We are completing our major household surveys in Indiana and São Paulo during fall 2008, so our findings are focused on our land-cover data analysis at this stage of our project. We have identified diverse county-level land-cover change trajectories in Indiana from 1976 to 2006 (see figure below). Some counties show rapid reforestation in the 1990s while other counties have relatively stable forest cover through this time. A dominant trend is for a stabilization in the rate of reforestation in all counties. After we have completed our household survey research we will be positioned to examine the household-level drivers behind these land-cover change dynamics at multiple spatial scales of analysis. Diverse County-Level Reforestation Trajectories in Indiana, 1976-2006 Our project activities are documented on the CIPEC Web site (www.indiana.edu/~cipec). Project funded by NSF Human and Social Dynamics program.