U469  Mongolia:  Theocracy, Communism, Democracy
(formerly Mongols of the 20th Century)
Week 16:  Tuesday
 

The Democratic (Revolution?)

1. Democratic Transition: Revolution or Evolution?
   1. What is Revolution?
      1. If: a profound, thorough change: then yes
      2. If: "act of violence by which one class overthrows another," then no
      3. Even if: peaceful displacement of the existing upper class, then no
      4. Result: the existing upper-class carried through a profound change
2. Change in the International Environment
   1. Death of Brezhnev (1982), new climate in Soviet Union
      1. August, 1984: Moscow removes Tsedenbal, Batmönkh promoted
      2. Gorbachëv and glasnost’/il tod and perestroika/shinechlen öörchlölt
      3. Imitated in mechanical manner in Mongolia
      4. Exiled scholars returned, banned poets (Choinom, etc.) published
   2. Sino-Soviet normalization
      1. USSR-PRC relations normalized; May, 1989: Gorbachev to Beijing
      2. Subsidy of Mongolia no longer made sense
      3. 1980's full of "Asian Tigers", "Asian Century" rhetoric
   3. End of Cold War
      1. 1987: US-Mongolian diplomatic relations
      2. Summer, 1989: elections in Poland >> disintegration of East block
      3. Disintegration of USSR 1991 >> Russia unprecedentedly weak
3. Political Change
   1. Emergence of new parties
      1. Social Democrats; Baabar: "Don’t Forget!; If you forget you perish"
      2. Democrats: more mass, less academic
      3. Demonstrations, hunger strikes begin in December 1989
   2. New government
      1. Batmönkh and crew: no support from Moscow; resign
      2. New elections; MPRP wins, but brings in "Democratic forces"
      3. Entirely bloodless transfer
      4. 1993: Democrats get presidency; 1996 get Parliament
      5. 1997: MPRP gets presidency; 2000: gets Parliament; 2001 Presidency again
   3. Generational gap
      1. Democrat leaders in 30s; MPRP leaders in 40s, 50s
      2. Technocratic, virtually all Soviet/East European-trained
      3. Virtually all white collar workers in UB; interlocking kinship ties
4. Economic Expectations and Crisis
   1. Revolution of Rising Expectation
      1. Mongolia had twenty years of rising income
      2. Upper class widely traveled, familiar with industrialized living standards
      3. Impatience with visible inefficiencies of system
      4. Expectations: Mongolia will be the fifth Asian Tiger
   2. Interlocking collapse of Soviet block economy
      1. Planning and trust: if you sell, how can assure you can buy?
         1. No real money: only valiuta (=capitalist money) trusted
            1. Hard currency in shortage, not enough for mass use
         2. When the plan breaks down, routine sales no longer trusted
         3. Trade turns to barter; grossly inefficient
         4. "Deficit" principle: having & buying safe, selling risky=hoarding
      2. Regional breakdown
         1. Existing pattern of wide economic integration
         2. Break-up of empire, USSR, down to oblasts
         3. Local governments adopt hoarding strategy >> export controls
         4. Hard currency governs international trade but in shortage
      3. Banking system profoundly corrupt
         1. Under plan, banks did not assess risk
         2. In transition, bankers inexperienced, primitive auditing
         3. Under plan, cutting corners drove the economy
         4. In transition, ownership very unclear
         5. Result: excessive loans to cronies, insider trading, etc.
      4. Subsidy of visible needs cut
         1. Russia pulls out of Mongolia; withdrawal removes demand
         2. Russia no longer subsidizes Mongolia; trade with valiuta only
         3. Mongolian tögrög plummets
            1. State resale trade of Soviet goods major part of budget
         4. Russian imports, spare parts hard to secure
      5. Intra-Mongolian exchanges disrupted
         1. Subsidy of small industrial plants ceased >> unemployment
         2. Subsidy of rural culture, schools diminished >> isolation
         3. Rural trade: old state-buying organs gone, new traders weak
         4. Popular expectation of low stable, prices (esp. food)
   3. Economy hit bottom 1992
      1. Slow growth, on a significantly less urban and industrial base
      2. Still frequent bouts of devaluation, inflation